The German Retail Research Institute (IFH) wrote in its annual market research report that the decline in bicycle and electric bicycle sales experienced by Germany in 2023 was a one-time event. According to IFH, demand will moderately rebound in the future starting from 2024.
The German Retail Research Institute (IFH) holds a cautious and optimistic outlook on the prospects of the bicycle market. Considering that the sales surge during the COVID-19 will not last long, the current focus of the market is whether the sales decline in 2023 is only part of the market adjustment or indicates a new downward trend. However, according to IFH's research, we can determine that the cause is not the latter.
For the outlook for 2024, experts from IFH and BBE Retail Consulting both predict a slight increase in sales. They further predict that in the coming years, until 2028, the market will gradually recover and is expected to achieve a positive performance with an average annual growth rate of up to about 4%.
The high inventory problem currently faced by bicycle dealers sometimes forces them to promote inventory products through significant price reductions. At present, this situation mainly puts pressure on manufacturers, who are facing a decline in order volume. But Christoph Lamsfu ß, a senior consultant at the German retail research institute IFH, said, "In the coming years, the market will gradually stabilize and achieve sustained growth."
"The market situation this year is quite tense," said the German Bicycle Industry Association ZIV. "The IFH report aligns with our forecast for the 2024 bicycle market," said Katharina Hinse, head of economic and industrial policy at the German Bicycle Industry Association ZIV. "We also predict that the market situation will be relatively tight this year, but we expect significant recovery and steady growth from 2025 onwards. Nevertheless, we believe that some manufacturers and retailers should be able to achieve good economic performance this year."
The German Retail Research Institute (IFH) pointed out in its report that the German bicycle market set a sales record of approximately 10.8 billion euros in 2022. However, after years of continuous growth, the industry experienced a decline for the first time in 2023, with sales declining by 5.2% compared to the previous year.
"Considering the impact of commodity backlog in the market, poor market performance in spring and market saturation during the COVID-19 epidemic, the year-on-year decline of sales in 2023 appears relatively mild and easy to understand." Florian Sch ö ps, manager of BBE retail consulting company, said when evaluating the data. He further pointed out, "With a good start to 2024 and a decrease in inventory, the industry is expected to quickly return to normal. In addition, the rise of electric bicycles and corporate bicycle rental services, as well as the continuous increase in workshop order volume, will continue to have a positive impact on the market."
According to data from the German Retail Research Institute (IFH), sales of electric bicycles reached saturation point in 2023, but the report did not mention the specific impact of this trend on business expectations for 2024. However, the high sales of electric bicycles in recent years have had a significant positive impact on the bicycle accessory market. For example, the demand for accessories such as mobile phone holders, navigation systems, helmets, and spare parts has greatly increased due to the hot sales of electric bicycles. Since the booming period of the bicycle market, the demand for these products has been continuously increasing, benefiting from the regular maintenance appointments of electric bicycle riders.